Referendum on Britain's exit from the EU. Britain's exit from the European Union (Brexit)
The future of Great Britain and, perhaps, the whole of Europe is now being determined. The sites will close in approximately two and a half hours. Campaigning is not legally prohibited on Polling Day, and politicians took their last chance to influence British opinion.
In the morning, news about the referendum looked more like reports of a natural disaster. Of course, heavy downpours with thunderstorms and flooding could disrupt voting in southern and central England. Weather-hardened voters nearly swim to the polling station, leaving detailed reports on social media.
It is unlikely that the vagaries of nature will prevent Her Majesty's subjects from fulfilling their civic duty, especially since the rain stopped around lunchtime. Many Londoners come to the polling station after taking time off from work. They understand that this election may be one of the most important of their lives.
All over the country, polling stations are open from seven in the morning to ten in the evening. There are queues near some. Propaganda leaflets and stickers are handed out at the exit from the metro. The law allows this. Judging by the latest polls, supporters of a united Europe and Eurosceptics are neck and neck. The gap between them is from one to four percent. The fate of the referendum is being decided by those who until recently could not make a choice.
“I would say this is the most important day in the last 20 years, at least for the UK. Economic consequences Brexit could be very serious, so I vote to stay in Europe,” says the young man.
“I believe that there is no democracy in the European Union, and the decisions we make are too different from the decisions of other members of the union, so I vote for Britain to leave the EU,” explains the woman.
The campaign began in February, when David Cameron negotiated a new agreement with the EU. The Prime Minister, who actually proposed holding a referendum, led the camp of supporters of a united Europe. Cameron's main argument is economic. Britain will lose its influence and economic weight by leaving the European Union. common market and political union. The Camerons voted in central London.
“We are stronger, we are richer and we are safer in the European Union! And that is why we must vote for our European future!” - said David Cameron.
Eurosceptics believe that EU membership erodes national sovereignty. They campaigned in two columns. The face of the official campaign is former London Mayor Boris Johnson. British Independence Party leader Nigel Farage campaigned separately. This controversial politician devoted more than 20 years to the fight against European bureaucracy.
When asked how you feel, Nigel Farage replies: “Great! I have been waiting for this referendum, without exaggeration, all my life. The last time a vote like this took place, I was 11!”
In 1975, the British confirmed their country's membership in the European common market for the first time. Now the key topic of Eurosceptics is migration. The incredibly high flow of migrants, and not only from EU countries, has become the main reason why many want to leave the European family.
“I voted to leave because the economies of our European neighbors are suffering. big problems, and therefore many people come to us in London. And this places an additional burden on social services. And then we don’t have many opportunities for negotiations with the EU,” explains the girl.
Fearing Brexit, Londoners are actively buying euros and dollars - after all, the pound could fall significantly if the country decides to float freely. The crisis plan was prepared not only by the Bank of England, but also by many companies trading with Europe. Foreigners living in London, and not just EU citizens, are worried that they will soon have to queue for visas again.
“I'm from Australia. I live here with my girlfriend from of Eastern Europe. And today I vote for the European Union. Why? I don’t want to re-issue my documents if Britain decides to leave the EU,” explains the man.
The last days of the campaign were marked by the memory of Jo Cox. The Labor MP and supporter of a united Europe was killed just a few days before the referendum. Perhaps many, out of respect for the memory of the parliamentarian, out of solidarity with her views, will vote for a united Europe. But official Brussels issued a final warning to the British the day before.
“The British voter must understand that there will be no new negotiations! We concluded an agreement with Great Britain, you got the maximum of what you wanted, but we cannot give more. We signed an agreement with David Cameron in February and we are not going to revise it. If you’re going to go out, then go out!” - says Jean-Claude Juncker.
In a recent interview with the French Le Monde, Jean-Claude Juncker spoke even more harshly: “We will not accept deserters with open arms!” Most likely, London, Scottish voters and Welsh residents will vote for EU membership. It is curious that it was in Scotland, where the main “Brexiter” Boris Johnson voted, where they are true to European values. There will be no so-called exit polls at this referendum - leading television companies fear that express polls near polling stations may give an incorrect result. We will most likely find out the voting results early in the morning.
Three days before the referendum on Britain's exit from the EU, the gap between its supporters and opponents is only 3%. RBC figured out who has the best chance and what a “yes” vote could lead to for the country and the whole of Europe
Flags of the UK (left) and the European Union (Photo: Frank Augstein/AP)
On Thursday, June 23, the UK will hold a referendum on the country's exit from the European Union - the so-called Brexit (from British Exit). If the Eurosceptics win, the UK could become the first EU member to leave the union in its entire existence. The gap between supporters and opponents of membership in the European Union is minimal, but even if the latter win, the decision to leave the EU could be blocked by parliament: according to the British Treasury, independence from European bureaucrats could cost the country 9.5% of GDP.
Political assassination
IN recent months observers noted an increase in the positions of Brexit supporters. Back in the spring, polls showed them lagging behind supporters of EU membership by 15-20%, but with the beginning of summer, undecided respondents began to join the number of Eurosceptics.
The situation changed dramatically late last week after Labor MP Jo Cox. On Wednesday, the politician spoke in London in support of keeping Britain in the EU, and on Thursday morning she headed to her home constituency in central England to meet with voters. Before the meeting began, Cox was attacked by an unknown person with a knife and homemade pistol. The deputy suffered gunshot and stab wounds and died an hour later at a local hospital. This was the first murder of a sitting British parliamentarian since July 1990, when Irish terrorists bombed the car of Ian Gow, the former head of the Treasury and a close ally of Margaret Thatcher.
Cox's death shocked the community. Propaganda campaigns—both those of opponents and supporters of leaving the EU—were suspended for two days. Conservative Prime Minister David Cameron and Labor leader Jeremy Corbyn spoke together at the scene of the MP's murder, calling for a fight against intolerance. All of Labour's main rivals have refused to field candidates in the Cox by-election.
As a member of the EU, the UK not only has tariff-free access to the markets of other countries in the union, but also benefits from free trade agreements that the EU has concluded with 53 countries. The authors of the government newsletter “Invest in Britain” recall that largely thanks to these agreements, the country was able to export more than £500 billion of goods and services in 2014 and become the sixth largest exporter in the world, the second (after the United States) exporter of services and the second exporter of goods via the Internet (also after the USA). The country expects to double its export volume by 2020, the bulletin said.
Access to the pan-European market is one of the main arguments of opponents of leaving the European Union. Back in December, Lord Stuart Rose, a Conservative politician, member of the House of Lords and one of the leaders of the campaign for maintaining EU membership, estimated that leaving the common market would cost the country at least £11 billion annually (exactly 1 trillion rubles at the current exchange rate). To do this, he made a simple calculation: he imposed a standard WTO duty of 5% for the “most trustworthy powers” on volumes of imports of goods from the EU. Taking into account new ONS data for 2015, this figure will rise to £14.5 billion.
Donor at a discount
One of the important arguments of Eurosceptics is the UK's contributions to the EU budget: London should not pay multi-billion dollar sums for the maintenance of the EU bureaucracy, they believe. According to the British Ministry of Finance, in 2014 the country had to contribute £18.8 billion to the pan-European budget, and in 2015 - £17.8 billion. In reality, Britain pays less: in 1985, Margaret Thatcher managed to agree on a discount. It is calculated by complex system, the main factors of which are customs duties when trading with third countries, the value of VAT and the level of development Agriculture. In 2015, for example, the discount amounted to £4.9 billion. In addition, significant amounts of money are spent from the general EU budget to support the British economy, for example, to support development funds. The UK's net contribution to the EU budget last year was more than half nominal at £8.5 billion.
Supporters of the country's exit from the EU, for their part, offer several ways to further develop trade relations. One of the options is Norwegian: Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein, although not members of the European Union, are part of the European Economic Area and enjoy free trade opportunities. However, these countries are forced to comply with EU rules and requirements, without being able to participate in their development themselves, opponents of Brexit object. The second option is Swiss: Switzerland is not part of the European Economic Area, but has bilateral agreements with the EU. This path also has a serious drawback: the agreements between Switzerland and the EU do not cover most financial services, which represents a serious disadvantage for London as an international financial center.
Londoners are the main opponents of Brexit. The British capital is the largest financial center in Europe and one of the largest in the world. Thus, in terms of the volume of banking assets (£10.4 trillion), the country in 2014 ranked fourth in the world after China, the USA and Japan, as noted in the same digest “Invest in Great Britain”. The UK is also the world leader in the foreign exchange market (41% of total transaction volume), insurance and reinsurance markets (20% of all global transactions) and the European leader in the total amount of funds under management of investment funds (£6.8 trillion by the end of 2014 ).
If Britain leaves the EU, this entire system could collapse, economists warn. In April, the British Ministry of Finance said that in the event of Brexit, the UK will lose from 3.4 to 9.5% of GDP in 15 years, and the budget will lose from £20 billion to £45 billion in taxes. City financiers fear that a significant part of operations, due to the growing uncertainty of the business climate in the country in the event of Brexit, may be transferred to other global financial centers. According to an internal poll by CityUK, a lobbying group that brings together the country's leading financial players, 84% of them are in favor of keeping Britain in the EU. A study by PwC auditors commissioned by CityUK found that in four years the country’s financial sector will lose up to 100 thousand workers, and the industry’s contribution to GDP will decrease by 10%.
Despite this, there are also Brexit supporters among British financiers. As the FT notes, first of all it is small and medium business oriented towards the domestic market. There are exceptions: for example, one of richest people Great Britain, Peter Hargreaves (18th place in the Forbes list for Britain). In May he gave £3.2 million to the Brexit campaign.
Half a century of doubt
Great Britain joined the European Union (then the European Economic Community) in 1973 on the initiative of Conservative Prime Minister Edward Heath. IN next year During the parliamentary campaign, Labor promised to check the decision with a national referendum if it won. Labor won and held a vote in the spring of 1975, following which 67% of Britons were in favor of membership in the EEC.
The movement against further integration with continental Europe gained momentum during the reign of Margaret Thatcher. Then the UK received the right to evade several pan-European laws (the so-called opt-out). The country used this right by refusing to introduce a single currency, join the Schengen zone and join the pan-European rules for the placement of refugees.
The actual initiator of the current referendum is Conservative Prime Minister David Cameron, who at the beginning of 2013, in a keynote speech, criticized the EU on three main points: the financial crisis of the eurozone, the decline in the competitiveness of the economy and the inconsistency of the actions of the EU government with the desires of its citizens. Cameron promised voters to hold a referendum on Britain's exit from the union no later than 2017 if his party wins the vote. parliamentary elections in May 2015 (the victory was won).
However, in February 2016, after several months of intense negotiations, Cameron finally with Brussels, the reform of European institutions, in accordance with the wishes of London, but only if the UK remains part of the European Union. Since then the government has supported the anti-Brexit campaign.
After the referendum
However Britons vote on June 23, the results of the referendum are not legally binding on the British government. The bill on the referendum on EU membership adopted by the British Parliament does not mean that the referendum decision is binding. Materials on the Brexit procedure posted on the Parliament website explicitly state that the results of the referendum “are likely to be viewed as politically (but not legally) binding.”
As an expert from London explains law firm Preiskel & Co David Green in a column in the Financial Times, according to Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon (the main document of the EU), which governs the procedure for leaving the union, an EU member can decide to leave “in accordance with its constitutional rules”. In the case of the UK, according to Green, it should be about parliamentary approval. At the same time, Green emphasizes: if the authorities ultimately act contrary to the decision of the referendum, it will become “political suicide” for them.
If the question of leaving the EU after the referendum is decided by parliament, then the country has a great chance of remaining in the EU despite the results of the vote - according to BBC calculations, 454 out of 650 deputies of the House of Commons are in favor of maintaining membership in the European Union. Moreover, according to the agency, members of parliament are already holding consultations on how to use this majority to prevent Brexit.
If the decision to leave the EU is nevertheless made, then, in accordance with Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, a negotiation process will be launched on the conditions for the country’s exit from the bloc. If these terms cannot be agreed upon, EU membership will automatically end two years after notice of withdrawal is submitted. During this “transition period”, the UK will remain a full member of the European Union, and European legislation will apply within the country. At the same time, as David Green notes, London will no longer be able to withdraw its notice of withdrawal.
Brexit in numbers
£8.5 billion paid by London to the EU budget in 2015
41% The global foreign exchange market is concentrated in the UK
48,5% ranks in the EU structure foreign trade Britain
Britain's budget will fall short £30 billion in case of Brexit by 2020
£3.2m billionaire Peter Hargreaves donated to Brexit supporters
In the event of Brexit, the Russian economy may be short-changed 1% GDP
Sources: HM Treasury, ONS, The Guardian, Sberbank
ALL PHOTOS
Supporters of Britain's exit from the European Union (Brexit) won a victory based on the results of counting 100% of the ballots of voters who voted on Thursday on referendum at all 382 polling stations. 51.9% of votes were cast for the country's exit from the EU, and 48.1% for maintaining membership in the European Union, the BBC reports, citing data from the Electoral Commission.
Eurosceptics beat their opponents by a margin of 1.26 million votes: 17,410,742 people were in favor of Brexit, 16,141,241 were against. Voter turnout was 71.8%. In total, more than 33.5 million people took part in the referendum. BBC notes that this was the highest turnout in the election different levels, held in the UK since 1992.
On Thursday, British citizens answered the question: "Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or should it leave the European Union?" Britons, Irish and Commonwealth citizens living in the UK, as well as Britons living outside the country, were able to take part in the plebiscite.
As a result, residents of London, Scotland and Northern Ireland voted to maintain the country's membership in the EU. Wales and England supported Brexit. Those who voted most in favor of leaving the EU were Boston (75.6%), South Holland (73.6%) and Castle Point (72.7%). Most high result Among Brexit supporters were residents of Gibraltar (95.9%).
Cameron announced his resignation
Shortly after the referendum results were announced, British Prime Minister David Cameron announced, who plans to retire in October. According to him, the government will continue to work for another three months, and then the country will need a new leader.
It is noteworthy that shortly before this, the country's Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond reported that Cameron had made it clear to him that he intended to remain in office despite the referendum result. The country currently needs a sense of stability, Hammond explained, as quoted by Reuters.
27 EU leaders will discuss the outcome of Brexit
President of the European Council Donald Tusk said on Friday, commenting on the results of the referendum, that Europe was ready for such a scenario. “This is a serious, even dramatic moment, especially for the United Kingdom. We are ready for this negative scenario. There will be no legal vacuum here,” Tusk said, as quoted by Interfax.
“As for all 27 leaders: we are determined to maintain our 27 unity. I have proposed holding an informal meeting of the 27 as part of the European Council summit next week,” Tusk said.
EP Chairman Martin Schulz announced that the European Parliament will also convene for an emergency meeting. The reaction of financial markets shows that the path the UK is embarking on will be difficult. Schulz said this on Friday on the ZDF television channel. "The UK has decided to go its own way. I think this morning's economic data shows that it will be a very difficult path," Schultz said, as quoted by TASS.
Martin Schulz, noting that the result of the referendum was a fall in the value of the pound, stressed that he did not want the euro to experience something similar. The head of the EP expressed confidence that Brexit will not cause a chain reaction in Europe. In his opinion, other countries will not want to follow this dangerous path. Schulz said that he would discuss the current situation with Chancellor Angela Merkel, and on Tuesday, June 28, the European Parliament would meet for an emergency meeting.
The Irish government will hold an emergency meeting to discuss the results of the referendum on Friday, June 24, Reuters reports. "This result obviously has a very serious consequences for Ireland, as for the UK and EU. The government will meet this morning to discuss the results. After the meeting, the Prime Minister will make a statement,” the agency quotes the government statement.
US President Barack Obama has been informed of the results of the referendum held in Great Britain and intends to discuss these results with British Prime Minister David Cameron in the near future. This is stated in a released statement from the White House.
Chairman of the Bundestag (German Parliament) Foreign Affairs Committee Norbert Röttgen (CDU) called the decision to withdraw Great Britain from the EU “the biggest disaster in the history of European integration.” He stated this in an interview with the DPA agency.
The Bundestag will meet next week to an emergency meeting to discuss the consequences of the UK leaving the EU. This was announced by the head of the CDU/CSU faction in the German parliament, Volker Kauder. On Friday, he said, the Bundestag factions will discuss the situation.
The UK will leave the EU after 43 years in it
Britain, which joined the European Union in 1973, will be the first country to leave the union since its inception. However, as the BBC notes, the results of the British referendum do not mean that the country will immediately cease to be a member of the European Union. This process may take at least two years. The head of the European Council, Donald Tusk, emphasized on Friday that until the UK officially leaves the EU, European legislation will continue to be applied, including in this country.
David Cameron announced his decision to hold a referendum in February. Prior to this, following lengthy negotiations, the prime minister agreed with the leaders of other EU countries on the terms of Britain’s continued membership in the union, promising to encourage his compatriots to speak out in a referendum in favor of keeping the country within the European Union.
Most of the current cabinet of ministers, as well as many British politicians, including two former prime ministers - Tony Blair and John Major, famous cultural and artistic figures, and sports stars, were in favor of maintaining Britain's membership in the EU. The leaders of the union itself and the heads of many European countries, as well as US President Barack Obama.
Residents of Wales. In turn, 48% of English people were against the country’s exit from the EU, including residents of Scotland and Northern Ireland.
Thus, the results of the referendum in Great Britain, held on June 23, will allow the country to leave the EU after 43 years of continuous membership. The BBC reports this.
“Britain is on the verge of a political earthquake,” this is how Sky News commented on the results of the referendum in England.
Why should Britain secede?
The British wanted to hold a referendum on leaving the European Union back in 2011: then, having collected signatures, 100 thousand people supported the idea of holding a vote, but the country's parliament considered the resolution of this issue premature.
“The UK referendum was a lesson that must be learned quickly and humbly.”
“The EU authorities must start ‘listening to the voice of the people’, and the results of the referendum in Britain should be a lesson for the EU.”
Belgian political scientist Bart Smet:
“Now the European Union will turn into a German sandbox, since not a single country in the community is now able to form an opposition to Berlin, which has already significantly increased its influence in the European Union during the euro crisis.”
Leader of the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) Nigel Farage:
“It is unacceptable for Prime Minister David Cameron to remain as head of government and leader of the Tories because his chosen path to continued EU membership has failed.”
Polish Foreign Minister Witold Waszczykowski:
“The UK’s decision to leave the European Union could set a precedent and lead to the exit of other countries.”
In confirmation of his words, the leader of the National Front, Marine Le Pen, has already demanded that a similar referendum on the country's membership in the European Union be held in France.
